The Tesla stock price rollercoaster just took a terrifying turn. While Elon Musk’s electric empire celebrated a 50% surge over six months, Wall Street analysts are now dropping bombshell predictions that could make even the most diamond-handed investors sweat. Some experts see a potential 65% crash ahead – but is this fear justified, or just market noise?
Table of Contents
The Tale of Two Teslas: Mixed Performance Reality
Tesla’s recent performance tells a story of split personalities. Here’s the bewildering reality investors are grappling with:
| Performance Metric | Tesla’s Numbers |
|---|---|
| 6-Month Gain | +50% |
| Year-to-Date | -10% |
| 12-Month Performance | +60% |
| Q1 2025 Deliveries | 340,000 vehicles (weakest in 2+ years) |
This schizophrenic performance has left investors wondering: Which Tesla is the real one?
Market Share Meltdown: The 80% to 38% Disaster
Remember when Tesla owned the US EV market? Those days are fading fast. The company’s US market share has plummeted from a commanding 80%+ dominance to just 38% in August 2025 – the lowest since October 2017.
This isn’t just a number; it’s a seismic shift that signals Tesla’s grip on the EV throne is loosening. For the first time since 2017, Tesla has breached the critical 40% threshold, and competitors are circling like vultures.
The Innovation Drought: Where Are the New Models?
Here’s where the story gets concerning. Tesla’s last major launch was the Cybertruck in 2023 – and even that polarizing pickup hasn’t lived up to the hype. While Musk has been busy chasing robotaxis and humanoid robots, traditional automakers have been quietly eating Tesla’s lunch.
The relaunched Model Y? A disappointment that failed to reignite consumer excitement.
Expert Analysis: The Bull vs Bear Battle
Industry experts are deeply divided, creating a fascinating case study in market psychology:
The Optimistic View
Viram Shah, CEO of Vested Finance, explains the timing paradox: “The contrast between a strong 12-month rally and year-to-date decline is mostly about timing.” He sees the current weakness as temporary growing pains.
Justin Khoo from VT Markets focuses on Tesla’s long-term bets: “The market is paying for Tesla’s longer-term bets in AI, robotics, and energy.” He highlights the Full Self Driving program and energy storage business with 30%+ margins as potential game-changers.
The Warning Signals
But not everyone’s drinking the Tesla Kool-Aid. The numbers reveal some uncomfortable truths:
- Q1 2025 deliveries hit their weakest performance in over two years
- Chinese competition is intensifying
- Margin erosion continues to pressure profitability
- Delayed product launches are frustrating investors
Analyst Price Targets: The 65% Crash Prediction
Wall Street’s crystal ball shows dramatically different futures for Tesla:
| Brokerage | Rating | Target Price | Implied Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | Buy | $410 | +18% upside |
| Wells Fargo | Sell | $120 | -65% crash |
This massive gap between analyst expectations – from 18% upside to 65% downside – perfectly captures Tesla’s current uncertainty.
The Investment Dilemma: What Should You Do?
Justin Khoo’s strategy offers a balanced approach for nervous investors:
- Hold existing shares if you’re already invested
- Trim positions if Tesla represents too much of your portfolio
- Add only on pullbacks or when new catalysts emerge
- Wait for the affordable model launch before making big bets
The Bottom Line: Tesla’s Crossroads Moment
Tesla stands at a critical juncture. The company that once seemed unstoppable now faces its biggest test since the early production hell days. With market share eroding and competition intensifying, Tesla must prove that its AI and robotics bets weren’t just expensive distractions.
The 65% crash prediction might sound extreme, but Tesla’s volatility makes anything possible. For investors, the key question isn’t whether Tesla will face turbulence – it’s whether you can stomach the ride while Musk navigates toward his next revolutionary breakthrough.
